NBA BETTING PREVIEW
TSB MIKE (Administrator) 2 months ago // TopSportsBets.com NBA basketball talk

The NBA season is finally upon us. Traditionally, the NBA has been very kind to us. We expect this season to be no different. My same betting philosophies apply to the NBA. I

tend to fade the public, while looking for key betting trends and angles that have proved to be $$$$ during the year. In this preview, you will find a brief breakdown of each team with regards to BETTING. Most of you on here know your teams and players, and are participating in our TSB Fantasy Basketball League. I’m not going to break down each team and what their record will be and how far they go in the playoffs. That’s useless info right now. What i will give is a brief breakdown of how each team will relate to the betting line, in order of their predicted finish at the end of the season. Let’s do it!

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

LOS ANGELES LAKERS—The infamous LA Lakers! This is the favorite team of both Scott and I. I expect this team to play in the NBA Finals. As far as the season goes, i think this team will be bad against the spread. I have no doubt that management will not let Kobe average 40 minutes a game. This team is focused on the postseason, not the regular season. Last year, the Lakers were cover machines. Despite being HUGE PUBLIC favorites nightly, this team covered everything. I don’t think this will be the case this year, especially in the early months. To be more exact, i look for a lot of home spread losses, especially when favored by double digits. On the flip side, i see lots of small chalk road covers. Coach Jackson will challenge his team when on the road facing top teams. After last year, i see no way that Vegas and the LVSC let this team to dominate them again.

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NEW ORLEANS HORNETS——This team is really good. They didn’t really lose anybody this past offseason. They added James Posey, which shouldn’t be overlooked. He brings a winning attitude to this team, especially on the defensive end. This team is famous for home covers. I expect this trend to continue. I also expect this team to play in more UNDERS this year. Coach Scott and Company are preaching defense, and i believe they buy into the talk. Chris Paul is talking about defense more than anybody on the team, so i believe this team will produce more unders than expected. I also believe this team will be one of the few that is good on back end of back to back games.

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HOUSTON ROCKETS-—-Potential championship team. I think if you are going to lay a futures bet, this Rockets team offers the best value. I think the added addition of Ron Artest might be the final piece they need. Artest is in a contract year, and he loves Coach Adelman. I think he keeps his act together this year. To no surprise, this might be the biggest UNDER team in all of basketball. Their defense is spectacular. Because of this defense, i think they might end up being the best road team in basketball this year. Look for lots of road covers this year!

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UTAH JAZZ-——The Jazz are an OVER team. They shoot the ball really well, and can’t defend a thing. Boozer and Okur might be the weakest defensive 4 and 5 in all of basketball. I think they are loaded at the 2 and 3 spots offensively. I look for a big year out of Deron Williams. I think it’s wise to stay away from the side in Jazz games and simply stick to OVERS. This team will be inconsistent throughout the year, especially on the road.

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SAN ANTONIO SPURS-——I have them this low because even they admit that their season doesn’t begin till the playoffs. I also think Manu Ginobli is injured more than the front office is saying. Defense still reigns supreme in San Antonio. They have the most efficient half court offense in the Western Conference. They love to slow it down, especially now that they are a year older. I look for lots of UNDERS, especially at home. I also expect them to be poor on the back end of back to back games. A huge money trend is when teams play the Spurs on the front end of back to back games, to ABSOLUTELY go against that team in the next game. The Spurs just grind you down, and wear you out physically. This year will be no different.

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DALLAS MAVERICKS——I really like the hire of Rick Carlisle. I think this team is a good sleeper candidate this year. Look, this team traded away their future last year to win now. They didn’t do it last year, but i think they have one more chance this year. Their players know this. I expect Jason Kidd to really step up this year, and lead this team. Their starting 5 are all veterans with something to prove. I think this team is completely flying under the radar this year. With the coaching change, with the players playing with a chip on their shoulder, i think this team could be the best team against the spread this year. I especially love them in the first month of the season, as they will be undervalued. Ride this team all season long!

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PHOENIX SUNS---One of the biggest mysteries heading into this year. Because of this, this is a team that needs to be avoided from a betting standpoint. Steve Nash’s back, Shaq’s age and rapping contests, Grant Hill’s body, etc…..I’m staying as far away from this team as possible from a betting perspective. I actually think this team is better if they insert rookie Robin Lopez for Shaq. Ouch, that hurts even saying that. Stay away at all costs from this team! If anything, they are overvalued to start the year.

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PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS---Another team expected to make a rise in the standings. This team is an under team, no doubt about that. They have exceptional length, 2nd only to the Lakers in the Western Conference. Outlaw, Aldridge, and Oden are all primarily defensive players. Aldridge might me the most underappreciated player in the league. Even Brandon Roy can play some defense. Coach McMillan preaches defense, and the players listen. I think this team is a bit overrated from a betting perspective because of the return of Greg Oden. I think it’s far smarter to simply bet UNDER in their games. I do especially like this team in the back end of back to back games. They are a young defensive team, so i think you can count of them in this situation.

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DENVER NUGGETS…Over, over, over. This team will be an over team, especially at home. The loss of Marcus Camby will hurt this team up front. Let’s face it, Nene won’t play the whole year, as he never has. Once Nene goes down, they have no defensive presence. Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Linas Kleiza, and George Karl. I think that spells OVER. Stay away from this team when on the road. When the going gets tough, this team will fold it’s tent. This team needs to be broken up, as there is no chance for this team to make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. I only trust this team to produce a lot of points, and a lot of overs.

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LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS….Besides the Mavericks, i think the Clippers have the best record against the spread in the first month of the season. Baron Davis is a huge addition to this team. He is a pretty good leader, and now he’s back in his hometown. I think he’s properly motivated, and it will show in his play. The frontcourt of Kaman, Camby, and Thornton is money! Off the bench they have scorers in Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis to go along with the veteran leadership of Cuttino Mobley, Brian Skinner, and Jason Hart. I expect Mike Dunleavy to really coach this team well this year, as he even has something to prove with Elgin Baylor gone. I think this Clipper team will fight for a playoff spot as well. This team will be good early, and provide a ton of value. Jump on them before everybody else figures them out.

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SACRAMENTO KINGS…..If this team was in the East, they would have a chance to make the playoffs. There is some pieces in place to make a good team. Kevin Martin, Brad Miller, and John Salmons, along with some decent rookies. I think this team will continue to be tough at home, especially when tasked as the underdog. Arco Arena always is a difficult place to play. I don’t really have a feel with this team in regards to totals. I just trust them at home, and that’s it. Look out for Spencer Hawes, this kid can play. If Brad Miller gets hurt, like he always does, i think Hawes will prove himself a worthy candidate. Overall, take this team only when they are at home, specifically as an underdog.

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GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS…..Wow how this team has fallen since last year. I think its going to get ugly this year for this team. I think they have the potential to be the worst team against the spread in the entire NBA. Losing Baron Davis was tough. Having Monta Ellis go down on his moped was even tougher. Even Kellen Winslow thinks Ellis was dumb this offseason. This team will continue to score, but who are they going to stop?? I think this team will be terrible, especially on the road. Fade this team until they prove otherwise, which won’t happen.

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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES…...This team is on the rise believe it or not. They still are one of the worst teams in the league, but they are rebuilding the right way. This team will be tough at home. They have some high character guys that will prove to be tough, especially at home. I love the addition of Mike Miller. He will provide instant offense, as well as leadership and toughness. Al Jefferson and Kevin Love will complement each other well. I also like their bench rotation. This team is growing up. At home, they will be a tough out. Take this team against the spread when they are at home, and especially when facing opponents who are on the back end of back to back games.

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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES…....Another team that i think is truly on the rise. I think they have a damn good backcourt with Conley and Mayo. That duo has a chance to be really good if they can grow up together. And Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick provide supreme athleticism. I actually like this team at home against the spread. I think they will have an ATS record well over 500 at home. On the road, they will be terrible. Their youth will kill them on the road against veteran teams who play in the halfcourt. I think this is one of the easiest teams to read from a betting standpoint. This team can and will make you money all year long.

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OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER…...I’m trying to stay positive about my thoughts about this team. They do have a cool new name, and they did draft Russell Westbrook. Durant, paired with Collison and Wilcox is good. Jeff Green is not a good player. He will prove to be a bust, and he’s terribly bad at guarding opposing small forwards. I’m avoiding this team altogether, both against the spread and with regards to over/unders. If coach P.J. Carlesimo doesn’t know his team, i sure as heck don’t either. Stay away from this team!

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

BOSTON CELTICS-—-It’s impossible not to have this team #1 in the East. Hell of a year last year for them. My props to them, and especially to Danny Ainge. He deserves all the credit in the world. Obviously with winning the championship, this team will be considered overvalued to start this year. However, i still think this team will be solid against the spread. I think Doc Rivers is a very good motivator, and he will have this team ready every game. I also think this team will remain tough ATS thanks to their bench. Tony Allen, Leon Powe, and the rest of the bench are really good because they all know their roles. Of course this team will remain an UNDER team, as they do have the best defense in the league. I think they will also be tough on the road. Road unders will be a huge trend for this team in my opinion.

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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS——I think 2 through 5 are tough to predict in the Eastern Conference. I will go with Cleveland because they have the 2nd best player in the world and because they are a veteran group. I like the addition of Mo Williams to this team. I think he’s a fearless point guard who can score. I think bringing Boo Gibson off the bench is key, as he and Pavlovic will provide instant offense. I think this team will produce more OVERS than expected of them. I also like this team on the road ATS. I think Lebron likes playing on the road, and combined with Big Z and fearless Mo Williams, they will be tough to handle on the road. I could see them struggling to cover against teams at home when they are a double digit favorite.

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ORLANDO MAGIC---I believe this team will continue to score alot of points. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu will always score, and will always shoot the moment they touch the ball. Dwight Howard remains a beast down low. I think the biggest addition is Mickael Pietrus. He was brought in purely for his defense, and i do believe he has the athleticism to stop opposing 2 guards. I think overall this team will be really good at home, and simply average on the road. This team was pretty good on the road last year, but i think that changes this year. They have more of a target on their back this year, so they won’t surprise anybody this year. This team remains a good solid home team that can score alot of points.

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TORONTO RAPTORS-—-I like this team. This is the Eastern Conference version of the Dallas Mavericks in my opinion. They’ve made some changes to their starting lineup. Jose Calderon is now the starting point guard, while Jermaine O’Neal is the new center. Solid veterans with a chip on their respective shoulders. This is a team that is undervalued. They get lost in the shuffle of Eastern Conference teams. Ride this team early and often. They will be money at home especially. Coach Mitchell also preaches defense, and with Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, he has that defense down. Calderon, paired with O’Neal and Chris Bosh is studly. This team is good, BACK THEM down the money train!

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DETROIT PISTONS-——Another year, another year older. I don’t expect this team to stay together all year long. This team will be broken up. I worry about this team quite a bit actually. I think at home, they will be far too overvalued. I will fade this team at home, and on the back end of back to back games. The only place i like this team ATS is on the road. They are a veteran group that still has a lot of pride, but they are on the decline. Don’t get caught backing this team too often. I think their time has come and gone as an Eastern Conference power. Keep in mind, i’m not saying they are bad, just way OVERRATED. This team will also struggle when playing the Western Conference.

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PHILADELPHIA 76ERS-—-I actually think the addition of Elton Brand was a mistake. With the money they gave to him, a disaster. Even Carl Pavano thinks this was a bad deal. However, this team is still pretty good. They are very, very atheltic. Iguodala and Young are two of the most athletic wings in all of basketball. Andre Miller still knows how to manage a team, and Sameul Dalembert is a heck of a defensive center. I think this team will be an UNDER team. I think Maurice Cheeks has preached defense this offseason. I also think the addition of Brand will make this team slow down a bit. The perception is that this team is an OVER team, but i think it will turn out to be just the opposite.

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CHICAGO BULLS-——I think Vinny Del Negro is the perfect coach for this team. A former player who was tough as nails, and who loves offense. What better coach to lead this team of offensive players?? I think this team has a world of talent. They have been in the wrong system. I think this uptempo switch will make this team quite formidable. In the short term, Bulls game are going to go OVER the total. This team might be the most OVER team in the Eastern Conference. I also like this team at home, especially as small favorites. This team will also be good on back to back games, as they will run, run, run. When this team goes up against the Western Conference, their games will soar OVER the total. This could be Golden St. EAST.

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WASHINGTON WIZARDS-—-This team will have to stay injury free to remain in the playoffs. Otherwise, the Pacers will edge them out. I keep the Wizards in the playoffs because of the character of both Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. These two guys are solid veterans. They will keep their ship afloat until Gilbert Arenas comes back to help them out. I like this team at home ATS, and nothing else. I don’t have that great of a feel for this team, so other than being at home, im not betting them. The moment Butler or Jamison goes down, i’m fading this team into oblivion.

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INDIANA PACERS….....I like this team a great deal. I think T.J. Ford is a great fit in Indianapolis. This is an example of a trade working for both teams. Jermaine O’Neal is a solid fit in Toronto, and Ford is money in Indianapolis. Pairing T.J. with Dunleavy and Granger makes a solid trio. Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster are two veteran players who know how to play the game. If their bigs can stay injury free, this team has sleeper written all over it. I like this team especially on the road. This team is undervalued, and could shock some people. In my opinion, this is the Clippers of the Eastern Conference this year. I’m a fan of this team.

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ATLANTA HAWKS…....I have the Hawks this low because they have no bench. They do have a solid starting 5, but that’s it. I think they surprised alot of people this year, and that they won’t be afforded that luxury this year. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are spectacular players. Al Horford is a beast down low, and Marvin Williams is the ultra-talented question mark. I understand why some people like this team a great deal, but i’m fading them. I don’t believe in Mike Woodson, and personally think he will be fired before the All Star Game. I’m fading this team, as i just see them struggling this year. This team will be bad at home against the spread as they are simply OVERRATED in my opinion.

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MIAMI HEAT…...Some people think this could be the 8th seed in the East. I don’t think so. But i do like this team a great deal against the spread. Dwyane Wade is on a big bounceback this year, and i expect him to be pretty good. Shawn Marion is in a contract year, so you know he’ll be playing hard! I worry about Michael Beasley a bit. Sure he will score, but when will he hit the rookie wall?? Can he stay out of trouble when they are on the road?? This team has to start Marcus Banks over Mario Chalmers at the point guard position. This team has no depth whatsoever. I think this team will be tough at home. I am buying this team in the early going of the season. After that, i might jump ship.

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NEW YORK KNICKS…...This team will be better than years past. Coach Mike D’Antoni is the answer i believe. I think this offense will make stars out of Jamal Crawford and David Lee. Nate Robinson will be fun to watch too, along with Wilson Chandler. This team is clearly an OVER team. I would be willing to wager that this team finishes 17 games or higher to the OVER this year. Another funny trend to be aware of is betting the Knicks at home on Friday nights. It’s a weird trend that cashes more often than not for some reason. Keep that little stat in mind as well. But most importantly, Knicks games = OVER

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CHARLOTTE BOBCATS….I do like the hire of Larry Brown as head coach. Of course he will teach his young players the right way to play the game. I think they have some solid pieces with Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor. I think Raymond Felton might be the worst starting point guard in the game. I also feel that Jason Richardson is bad for this team, and should be traded. I think this team will be formidable at home against the spread. They will be terrible on the road, and especially against good defenses. I believe this team will be more of an under team, as Coach Brown will clearly preach defense. I don’t like this team, and they should be faded more than they are bet on.

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MILWAUKEE BUCKS…..Weird to say this, but i think this team will make you some cash. I’m sure Crotch might have something to say about this however! I think this starting 5 is pretty good. I like Luke Ridnour at the point. I think Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are very solid at their positions. If Richard Jefferson can get used to playing in Milwaukee, i think this team can be decent. Even if Ridnour doesn’t produce, they do still have both Charlie Bell and Ramon Sessions. It will be interesting to see how rookie Joe Alexander does this year. They can’t afford to have Bogut go down to injury, as they literally have no backup bigs. I think Coach Skiles will be great for this team. I’m on this team a greal deal in the short term. They will be faced with alot of double digit spreads, and i think they will cover them.

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NEW JERSEY NETS…...FADE, FADE, FADE. If this team is trying to lose, why not fade them. All they care about is Lebron James, PERIOD. This is the worst team in basketball. Fade them, and you will make alot of money. Even Manny Ramirez thinks Vince Carter will tank this season. This team must be faded, as you will make alot of money this year doing so. This is a very bad team.